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Northstar BillingOS

Billing infra for B2B SaaS.

Cost basis $180.0M · Owns 38% · Last GP mark 2026-02-22

Synthetic equity

synth

$1B

80% CI $1B–$2B

Δ vs GP mark

+20.5%

+$241M

Synth revenue (TTM)

synth

$167M

Anchor $144M · 15.5%

Multiple applied

8.50x

Anchor 8.15x

Confidence

84%

Method: saas-traffic-headcount

Synthetic mark vs reported

Equity value, $M — band shows 80% confidence

SyntheticGP marksGround truth (sim)

Drivers vs anchor

log-elasticity decomposition · click a segment to isolate

Net +$129.9M

Synthetic mark is $129.9M above the anchor, driven by Paid account proxy (+97.9%) and Multiple momentum (+4.3%).

− $0.0M0+ $129.9M

Backtest vs ground truth

19 obs

R²

0.001

MAPE

13.4%

Lead vs GP

48d

Actual TTMEngine forecast

No alt-data anomalies in the last 30 days. Engine running clean.

Alt-data signals (trailing 12 months)

Inputs to the factor model

Headcount (engineering)

282

+6.0%

Talent panel · engineering FTE subset

Headcount (total)

669

+6.2%

Talent panel · LinkedIn-derived FTE estimate

Paid account proxy

3.9k

+30.7%

Talent panel · job postings mentioning the product

Sessions (30d)

1.32M

-13.8%

Web panel · 30d trailing average

Tech-stack share

0.56

+10.5%

Tech-stack panel · install share

Web uniques (30d)

565.0k

-8.8%

Web panel · 30d trailing average