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Meridian HRTech

HRIS for mid-market.

Cost basis $280.0M · Owns 42% · Last GP mark 2026-02-27

Synthetic equity

synth

$2B

80% CI $2B–$2B

Δ vs GP mark

+43.8%

+$505M

Synth revenue (TTM)

synth

$185M

Anchor $148M · 25.0%

Multiple applied

8.94x

Anchor 7.77x

Confidence

84%

Method: saas-traffic-headcount

Synthetic mark vs reported

Equity value, $M — band shows 80% confidence

SyntheticGP marksGround truth (sim)

Drivers vs anchor

log-elasticity decomposition · click a segment to isolate

Net +$508.4M

Synthetic mark is $508.4M above the anchor, driven by Paid account proxy (+99.4%) and Multiple momentum (+15.0%).

− $0.0M0+ $508.4M

Backtest vs ground truth

19 obs

R²

0.536

MAPE

12.8%

Lead vs GP

49d

Actual TTMEngine forecast

No alt-data anomalies in the last 30 days. Engine running clean.

Alt-data signals (trailing 12 months)

Inputs to the factor model

Headcount (engineering)

389

+62.8%

Talent panel · engineering FTE subset

Headcount (total)

910

+59.1%

Talent panel · LinkedIn-derived FTE estimate

Paid account proxy

3.7k

+73.6%

Talent panel · job postings mentioning the product

Sessions (30d)

1.48M

+47.8%

Web panel · 30d trailing average

Tech-stack share

0.563

+3.3%

Tech-stack panel · install share

Web uniques (30d)

714.9k

+73.6%

Web panel · 30d trailing average