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Ironlock Cloud Sec

CSPM platform.

Cost basis $295.0M · Owns 36% · Last GP mark 2026-02-26

Synthetic equity

synth

$2B

80% CI $2B–$2B

Δ vs GP mark

+7.4%

+$154M

Synth revenue (TTM)

synth

$258M

Anchor $238M · 8.2%

Multiple applied

8.70x

Anchor 8.76x

Confidence

84%

Method: saas-traffic-headcount

Synthetic mark vs reported

Equity value, $M — band shows 80% confidence

SyntheticGP marksGround truth (sim)

Drivers vs anchor

log-elasticity decomposition · click a segment to isolate

Net $-33.8M

Synthetic mark is $33.8M below the anchor, driven by Paid account proxy (+114.3%) and Multiple momentum (-0.7%); Tech-stack share added.

− $36.3M0+ $2.5M

Backtest vs ground truth

19 obs

R²

-6.679

MAPE

20.1%

Lead vs GP

47d

Actual TTMEngine forecast

Alt-data anomaly feed

1 alert

LOWIronlock Cloud SecΔ -1.5%
Web uniques (30d) 30d avg 636,851.9 is 1.1σ below 6-mo baseline (Δ -1.5%).
→ Investigate driver decomposition; consider pre-mark adjustment in next valuation committee.

Alt-data signals (trailing 12 months)

Inputs to the factor model

Headcount (engineering)

462

+5.5%

Talent panel · engineering FTE subset

Headcount (total)

1.1k

-1.1%

Talent panel · LinkedIn-derived FTE estimate

Paid account proxy

3.9k

+5.7%

Talent panel · job postings mentioning the product

Sessions (30d)

1.29M

-22.3%

Web panel · 30d trailing average

Tech-stack share

0.67

+3.7%

Tech-stack panel · install share

Web uniques (30d)

612.9k

-10.8%

Web panel · 30d trailing average