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Cobalt AI

ML platform; hyper-growth, low margin.

Cost basis $210.0M · Owns 20% · Last GP mark 2026-02-22

Synthetic equity

synth

$744M

80% CI $695M–$796M

Δ vs GP mark

+43.8%

+$227M

Synth revenue (TTM)

synth

$29M

Anchor $23M · 25.0%

Multiple applied

25.45x

Anchor 22.13x

Confidence

84%

Method: saas-traffic-headcount

Synthetic mark vs reported

Equity value, $M — band shows 80% confidence

SyntheticGP marksGround truth (sim)

Drivers vs anchor

log-elasticity decomposition · click a segment to isolate

Net +$226.5M

Synthetic mark is $226.5M above the anchor, driven by Paid account proxy (+99.7%) and Multiple momentum (+15.0%).

− $0.0M0+ $226.5M

Backtest vs ground truth

19 obs

R²

-0.345

MAPE

25.4%

Lead vs GP

49d

Actual TTMEngine forecast

No alt-data anomalies in the last 30 days. Engine running clean.

Alt-data signals (trailing 12 months)

Inputs to the factor model

Headcount (engineering)

-9.5%

Talent panel · engineering FTE subset

Headcount (total)

134

-9.5%

Talent panel · LinkedIn-derived FTE estimate

Paid account proxy

2.2k

+35.7%

Talent panel · job postings mentioning the product

Sessions (30d)

901.6k

+0.8%

Web panel · 30d trailing average

Tech-stack share

0.536

-1.1%

Tech-stack panel · install share

Web uniques (30d)

376.5k

-0.5%

Web panel · 30d trailing average