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Atlas Identity Platform

Enterprise IAM, 1.4k logos.

Cost basis $320.0M · Owns 35% · Last GP mark 2026-02-26

Synthetic equity

synth

$2B

80% CI $2B–$2B

Δ vs GP mark

+14.6%

+$223M

Synth revenue (TTM)

synth

$179M

Anchor $160M · 12.2%

Multiple applied

9.79x

Anchor 9.59x

Confidence

84%

Method: saas-traffic-headcount

Synthetic mark vs reported

Equity value, $M — band shows 80% confidence

SyntheticGP marksGround truth (sim)

Drivers vs anchor

log-elasticity decomposition · click a segment to isolate

Net +$80.3M

Synthetic mark is $80.3M above the anchor, driven by Paid account proxy (+97.3%) and Multiple momentum (+2.1%).

− $0.0M0+ $80.3M

Backtest vs ground truth

19 obs

R²

-0.404

MAPE

7.3%

Lead vs GP

49d

Actual TTMEngine forecast

No alt-data anomalies in the last 30 days. Engine running clean.

Alt-data signals (trailing 12 months)

Inputs to the factor model

Headcount (engineering)

310

+11.1%

Talent panel · engineering FTE subset

Headcount (total)

728

+11.1%

Talent panel · LinkedIn-derived FTE estimate

Paid account proxy

2.1k

+20.9%

Talent panel · job postings mentioning the product

Sessions (30d)

787.2k

-5.5%

Web panel · 30d trailing average

Tech-stack share

0.629

+1.5%

Tech-stack panel · install share

Web uniques (30d)

361.7k

+5.8%

Web panel · 30d trailing average