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Ridgeplay Aerospace

Tier-2 aerospace supplier.

Cost basis $525.0M · Owns 30% · Last GP mark 2026-02-15

Synthetic equity

synth

$1B

80% CI $1B–$1B

Δ vs GP mark

+24.9%

+$277M

Synth revenue (TTM)

synth

$642M

Anchor $553M · 16.1%

Multiple applied

2.17x

Anchor 2.02x

Confidence

89%

Method: industrial-geospatial

Synthetic mark vs reported

Equity value, $M — band shows 80% confidence

SyntheticGP marksGround truth (sim)

Drivers vs anchor

log-elasticity decomposition · click a segment to isolate

Net +$280.9M

Synthetic mark is $280.9M above the anchor, driven by Employee swipes (30d) (+60.2%) and Multiple momentum (+7.4%).

− $0.0M0+ $280.9M

Backtest vs ground truth

19 obs

R²

0.362

MAPE

9.4%

Lead vs GP

47d

Actual TTMEngine forecast

No alt-data anomalies in the last 30 days. Engine running clean.

Alt-data signals (trailing 12 months)

Inputs to the factor model

Employee swipes (30d)

16.0k

-18.6%

Talent / geo · 30d badge-in proxy

Facility utilization

0.599

-9.4%

Geospatial · derived utilisation 0–1

Geospatial activity

89.51

-13.0%

Geospatial · indexed activity at company sites

Port / facility visits (30d)

263.4

-21.9%

Geospatial · 30d trailing visit count