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Northbound Manufacturing

Precision components.

Cost basis $295.0M · Owns 27% · Last GP mark 2026-03-03

Synthetic equity

synth

$678M

80% CI $641M–$717M

Δ vs GP mark

+9.9%

+$61M

Synth revenue (TTM)

synth

$420M

Anchor $396M · 6.0%

Multiple applied

1.61x

Anchor 1.56x

Confidence

89%

Method: industrial-geospatial

Synthetic mark vs reported

Equity value, $M — band shows 80% confidence

SyntheticGP marksGround truth (sim)

Drivers vs anchor

log-elasticity decomposition · click a segment to isolate

Net +$60.4M

Synthetic mark is $60.4M above the anchor, driven by Multiple momentum (+3.5%) and Employee swipes (30d) (+52.2%).

− $0.0M0+ $60.4M

Backtest vs ground truth

19 obs

R²

0.555

MAPE

8.7%

Lead vs GP

44d

Actual TTMEngine forecast

No alt-data anomalies in the last 30 days. Engine running clean.

Alt-data signals (trailing 12 months)

Inputs to the factor model

Employee swipes (30d)

13.5k

-32.1%

Talent / geo · 30d badge-in proxy

Facility utilization

0.523

-21.2%

Geospatial · derived utilisation 0–1

Geospatial activity

74.48

-31.4%

Geospatial · indexed activity at company sites

Port / facility visits (30d)

250.3

-25.8%

Geospatial · 30d trailing visit count