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Heliopolis Refining

Independent refiner; cyclical.

Cost basis $480.0M · Owns 32% · Last GP mark 2026-02-16

Synthetic equity

synth

$433M

80% CI $410M–$458M

Δ vs GP mark

-27.8%

$-167M

Synth revenue (TTM)

synth

$544M

Anchor $664M · -18.2%

Multiple applied

0.80x

Anchor 0.90x

Confidence

89%

Method: industrial-geospatial

Synthetic mark vs reported

Equity value, $M — band shows 80% confidence

SyntheticGP marksGround truth (sim)

Drivers vs anchor

log-elasticity decomposition · click a segment to isolate

Net $-156.9M

Synthetic mark is $156.9M below the anchor, driven by Multiple momentum (-11.4%) and Employee swipes (30d) (+54.3%).

− $156.9M0+ $0.0M

Backtest vs ground truth

19 obs

R²

-0.694

MAPE

22.1%

Lead vs GP

44d

Actual TTMEngine forecast

Alt-data anomaly feed

2 alerts

MEDHeliopolis RefiningΔ -14.8%
Port / facility visits (30d) 30d avg 106.1 is 1.9σ below 6-mo baseline (Δ -14.8%).
→ Investigate driver decomposition; consider pre-mark adjustment in next valuation committee.
MEDHeliopolis RefiningΔ -13.5%
Geospatial activity 30d avg 34.1 is 1.7σ below 6-mo baseline (Δ -13.5%).
→ Pull commodity price + freight rate context; confirm with operator daily reports.

Alt-data signals (trailing 12 months)

Inputs to the factor model

Commodity proxy

127.8

+31.4%

Public · spot-price index

Employee swipes (30d)

6.7k

-42.3%

Talent / geo · 30d badge-in proxy

Facility utilization

0.256

-43.4%

Geospatial · derived utilisation 0–1

Geospatial activity

32.86

-49.2%

Geospatial · indexed activity at company sites

Port / facility visits (30d)

107.1

-46.8%

Geospatial · 30d trailing visit count