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Canyon Mining & Metals

Copper + lithium mining.

Cost basis $460.0M · Owns 40% · Last GP mark 2026-02-18

Synthetic equity

synth

$2B

80% CI $2B–$2B

Δ vs GP mark

+29.1%

+$383M

Synth revenue (TTM)

synth

$1B

Anchor $1B · 18.5%

Multiple applied

1.24x

Anchor 1.14x

Confidence

89%

Method: industrial-geospatial

Synthetic mark vs reported

Equity value, $M — band shows 80% confidence

SyntheticGP marksGround truth (sim)

Drivers vs anchor

log-elasticity decomposition · click a segment to isolate

Net +$394.7M

Synthetic mark is $394.7M above the anchor, driven by Employee swipes (30d) (+57.2%) and Multiple momentum (+9.0%).

− $0.0M0+ $394.7M

Backtest vs ground truth

19 obs

R²

0.635

MAPE

9.9%

Lead vs GP

48d

Actual TTMEngine forecast

No alt-data anomalies in the last 30 days. Engine running clean.

Alt-data signals (trailing 12 months)

Inputs to the factor model

Commodity proxy

162.6

+23.5%

Public · spot-price index

Employee swipes (30d)

32.1k

+47.1%

Talent / geo · 30d badge-in proxy

Facility utilization

0.943

+31.9%

Geospatial · derived utilisation 0–1

Geospatial activity

166.59

+41.4%

Geospatial · indexed activity at company sites

Port / facility visits (30d)

513.6

+39.5%

Geospatial · 30d trailing visit count