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Vineyard & Vine Co.

Premium wine club + distribution.

Cost basis $240.0M · Owns 51% · Last GP mark 2026-02-25

Synthetic equity

synth

$2B

80% CI $1B–$2B

Δ vs GP mark

+43.8%

+$499M

Synth revenue (TTM)

synth

$532M

Anchor $426M · 25.0%

Multiple applied

3.08x

Anchor 2.68x

Confidence

69%

Method: consumer-tx-pano

Synthetic mark vs reported

Equity value, $M — band shows 80% confidence

SyntheticGP marksGround truth (sim)

Drivers vs anchor

log-elasticity decomposition · click a segment to isolate

Net +$751.3M

Synthetic mark is $751.3M above the anchor, driven by Multiple momentum (+15.0%) and App DAU (+38.1%).

− $0.0M0+ $751.3M

Backtest vs ground truth

19 obs

R²

0.549

MAPE

13.3%

Lead vs GP

52d

Actual TTMEngine forecast

No alt-data anomalies in the last 30 days. Engine running clean.

Alt-data signals (trailing 12 months)

Inputs to the factor model

App DAU

41.2k

-10.1%

App panel · loyalty-program app DAUs

Avg ticket ($)

191.61

-3.0%

Derived · card $ ÷ unique payers

Card transactions ($)

743.7k

-20.2%

Card panel · ~55% of US debit/credit GMV

Foot traffic index

63.19

-17.0%

Geospatial · indexed visit count

Unique customers

3.9k

-17.8%

Card panel · unique payers