← back to fundConsumerBeauty & Personal· USA

Primrose Beauty Co.

Clean-beauty omnichannel.

Cost basis $220.0M · Owns 48% · Last GP mark 2026-03-05

Synthetic equity

synth

$4B

80% CI $4B–$5B

Δ vs GP mark

+29.5%

+$969M

Synth revenue (TTM)

synth

$984M

Anchor $819M · 20.2%

Multiple applied

4.32x

Anchor 4.01x

Confidence

69%

Method: consumer-tx-pano

Synthetic mark vs reported

Equity value, $M — band shows 80% confidence

SyntheticGP marksGround truth (sim)

Drivers vs anchor

log-elasticity decomposition · click a segment to isolate

Net +$986.4M

Synthetic mark is $986.4M above the anchor, driven by Multiple momentum (+7.7%) and App DAU (+36.3%).

− $0.0M0+ $986.4M

Backtest vs ground truth

19 obs

R²

-0.172

MAPE

15.4%

Lead vs GP

47d

Actual TTMEngine forecast

No alt-data anomalies in the last 30 days. Engine running clean.

Alt-data signals (trailing 12 months)

Inputs to the factor model

App DAU

66.3k

-4.7%

App panel · loyalty-program app DAUs

Avg ticket ($)

266.15

+1.3%

Derived · card $ ÷ unique payers

Card transactions ($)

1.42M

+4.0%

Card panel · ~55% of US debit/credit GMV

Foot traffic index

211.92

-3.8%

Geospatial · indexed visit count

Unique customers

5.3k

+2.6%

Card panel · unique payers