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Nordic Outfitters

DTC outdoor apparel; ~120 retail doors.

Cost basis $185.0M · Owns 55% · Last GP mark 2026-02-24

Synthetic equity

synth

$815M

80% CI $736M–$902M

Δ vs GP mark

+43.6%

+$248M

Synth revenue (TTM)

synth

$307M

Anchor $245M · 25.0%

Multiple applied

2.66x

Anchor 2.31x

Confidence

69%

Method: consumer-tx-pano

Synthetic mark vs reported

Equity value, $M — band shows 80% confidence

SyntheticGP marksGround truth (sim)

Drivers vs anchor

log-elasticity decomposition · click a segment to isolate

Net +$486.9M

Synthetic mark is $486.9M above the anchor, driven by App DAU (+36.2%) and Foot traffic index (+36.1%).

− $0.0M0+ $486.9M

Backtest vs ground truth

19 obs

R²

0.659

MAPE

9.2%

Lead vs GP

50d

Actual TTMEngine forecast

No alt-data anomalies in the last 30 days. Engine running clean.

Alt-data signals (trailing 12 months)

Inputs to the factor model

App DAU

28.4k

+20.0%

App panel · loyalty-program app DAUs

Avg ticket ($)

147.19

-4.5%

Derived · card $ ÷ unique payers

Card transactions ($)

517.9k

-2.3%

Card panel · ~55% of US debit/credit GMV

Foot traffic index

97.6

+20.3%

Geospatial · indexed visit count

Unique customers

3.5k

+2.3%

Card panel · unique payers