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Lumi Curated

Premium home goods e-comm.

Cost basis $95.0M · Owns 40% · Last GP mark 2026-02-17

Synthetic equity

synth

$885M

80% CI $799M–$980M

Δ vs GP mark

+43.5%

+$269M

Synth revenue (TTM)

synth

$367M

Anchor $293M · 25.0%

Multiple applied

2.42x

Anchor 2.10x

Confidence

69%

Method: consumer-tx-pano

Synthetic mark vs reported

Equity value, $M — band shows 80% confidence

SyntheticGP marksGround truth (sim)

Drivers vs anchor

log-elasticity decomposition · click a segment to isolate

Net +$521.0M

Synthetic mark is $521.0M above the anchor, driven by Foot traffic index (+36.6%) and App DAU (+35.6%).

− $0.0M0+ $521.0M

Backtest vs ground truth

19 obs

R²

0.501

MAPE

13.2%

Lead vs GP

47d

Actual TTMEngine forecast

No alt-data anomalies in the last 30 days. Engine running clean.

Alt-data signals (trailing 12 months)

Inputs to the factor model

App DAU

32.0k

+15.7%

App panel · loyalty-program app DAUs

Avg ticket ($)

167.69

+2.3%

Derived · card $ ÷ unique payers

Card transactions ($)

714.0k

+14.9%

Card panel · ~55% of US debit/credit GMV

Foot traffic index

174.7

+11.2%

Geospatial · indexed visit count

Unique customers

4.3k

+12.4%

Card panel · unique payers